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DOI : , Vol.27, No.4, 15 ~ 28, 2024
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| Title |
| Selection of Mitigation Scenarios Based on Prediction of the Dispersion Impact of Ecosystem-Disturbing Plant Species on Ecosystems |
| 이상욱 Lee Sang-wook , 김윤지 Kim Yoon-ji , 정혜인 Chung Hye-in , 이지연 Lee Ji-yeon , 유영재 Yoo Young-jae , 이관규 Lee Gwan-gyu , 성현찬 Sung Hyun-chan , 전성우 Jeon Seong-woo |
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| Abstract |
| Ecosystem-disturbing plant species pose a significant threat to native ecosystems due to their high reproductive capacity, making it essential to monitor their distribution and develop effective mitigation strategies. Consequently, it is crucial to enhance the evaluation of the impacts of these species in environmental impact assessments by incorporating scientific evidence alongside qualitative assessments. This study introduces a dispersal model into the species distribution model to simulate the potential spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species, reflecting their ecological characteristics. Additionally, we developed mitigation scenarios and quantitatively calculated reduction rates to propose effective mitigation strategies. The species distribution model showed a reliable AUC (Area Under the Curve) of at least 0.890. The dispersal model's results were also credible, with 31 out of 34 validation coordinates falling within the predicted spread range. Simulating the impact of the spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species over the next five years revealed that one project site had potential habitats for Ambrosia artemisiifolia, necessitating robust mitigation measures such as seed removal. Another project site, with potential habitats for Symphyotrichum pilosum, indicated that physical removal methods within the site were effective due to the species' relatively short dispersal distance. These findings can serve as fundamental data for project executors and reviewers in evaluating the impact of the spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species during the planning stages of projects. |
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| Key Words |
| ecosystem-disturbing plant species, species distribution model, MigClim, environmental impact assessment, mitigation scenario |
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